Department Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling

Climate and land-use changes affect river basins differently, even in regions with similar climates. For example, flood events in Europe are increasing in some areas while decreasing in others, and the timing of floods varies as well. Understanding these patterns is crucial for predicting how environmental changes will impact extreme water events and seasonal water supplies. To investigate, we ask: Why are some river catchments more sensitive to environmental changes than others?
To answer this, we will study around 1,000 European river catchments with diverse climates and landscapes, such as different topographies or land covers. Our experiments will combine data analysis using modern statistical and machine learning methods with hydrological model testing.
The goals of this research are to:

• Explain why similar catchments react differently by analyzing spatial differences in hydrological responses across Europe.
• Measure how sensitive different catchments are to environmental changes and how these changes affect trends over time.
• Study the processes that either worsen or lessen the impact of floods and droughts, which are often overlooked in models but are essential for accurate predictions.

This project will improve our understanding of how environmental changes affect water resources and help develop better models for predicting hydrological trends.