Department Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling

Water resources and armed conflicts interact in a tightly coupled relationship. Water scarcity creates enabling conditions for conflicts through its effect on food security and income uncertainty whereas, conversely, armed conflicts influence the hydrological cycle by disrupting agriculture and displacing refugees and their water needs. We characterize these interactions, both from an empirical perspective looking at the effect of past armed conflicts on food and water availability,  and from theoretical/predictive lens looking at the potential for hydrological change to affect future conflicts.