Department Environmental Social Sciences

Public decisions are typically related to large investments leaving long legacies. We should therefore strive for wide societal agreement regarding such decisions, which meet the diversity of preferences between stakeholders and over time. But if, how and why do stakeholder preferences change over time? In decision analysis, these questions received little attention. We explored them using three real-world public decision processes, based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). We used repeatedly elicited ranking of objectives over time. These were obtained during three to five moderated workshops we organised several months apart (total N = 200 questionnaires, and 100 stakeholders). We analysed individual and aggregated (group) preferences, their changes and potential drivers including demographic and experience variables. We also analysed the effect of preference evolution on the performance of decision-alternatives with MCDA over time. We found that stakeholder preferences often changed over time, both on an individual and group level. These changes did not systematically diminish over time, but some convergence of preferences was observed for stakeholders who repeatedly participated in workshops. High-ranking objectives were relatively stable and similar between stakeholders. While preference changes could not be explained by demographics and personal experiences, repeated interaction with the decision problem might play a role. Neither the observed disagreement between stakeholders, nor the preference changes over time affected the best and worst performing alternatives in our decision problems. Thus, despite changing stakeholder preferences over time, public decision-makers can contrive robust solutions to complex public decision problems in the present.

Climate change is projected to increase flood risks in western Africa. In the FANFAR project, a pre-operational flood early warning system (FEWS) for western Africa was co-designed in workshops with 50–60 stakeholders from 17 countries, adopting multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). We aimed at (i) designing a FEWS with western African stakeholders using MCDA and (ii) evaluating participatory MCDA as a transdisciplinary process. To achieve the first aim (i), we used MCDA methods for problem structuring and preference elicitation in workshops. Problem structuring included stakeholder analysis, creating 10 objectives to be achieved by the FANFAR FEWS and designing 11 possible FEWS configurations. Experts predicted FEWS configuration performance, which we integrated with stakeholder preferences. We tested MCDA results in sensitivity analyses. Three FEWSs showed good performance, despite uncertainty, and were robust across different preferences. For stakeholders it was most important that the FEWS produces accurate, clear, timely, and accessible flood risk information. To achieve the second aim (ii), we clustered common characteristics of collaborative governance frameworks from the sustainability science and transdisciplinary literature. Our framework emphasizes issues crucial to the earth systems sciences, such as uncertainty and integrating interdisciplinary knowledge. MCDA can address both well. Other strengths of MCDA are co-producing knowledge with stakeholders and providing a consistent methodology with unambiguous, shared results. Participatory MCDA including problem structuring can contribute to co-designing a project but does not achieve later phases of transdisciplinary processes well, such as co-disseminating and evaluating results. We encourage colleagues to use MCDA and the proposed framework for evaluating transdisciplinary hydrology research that engages with stakeholders and society.

As climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of floods around the globe, adaptation is increasingly vital. Besides structural measures to mitigate flood risk, non-structural measures are known to be highly effective and low-cost. Such non-structural measures include Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS). Effective warning creation and dissemination are crucial to successful FEWS. Despite extensive bodies of research that cross the boundaries between disciplines and application domains, systematic understanding of the detailed aspects contributing to the effectiveness of flood warnings is lacking. We systematically review the state-of-the-art in risk perception and warning communication present in academic (and grey) literature for FEWS. We focus on the elements of risk warnings specifically, rather than reviewing the topic of risk communication in general. We start with exploring how personal attributes affect individual risk perception related to flood warnings. We then deconstruct flood warnings into three basic components: content, format and dissemination channel. Most importantly, we found 21 individual elements (options) for these components, each associated with varying levels of support for their effectiveness in literature. Important caveats were identified, such as a lack of research into the speech format and SMS channel. We then describe and visualise the warning creation process, providing a framework for guidance. Accelerating technological advancement necessitates continued research into the effectiveness of novel formats and channels, rendering the currently most widely supported and researched elements increasingly obsolete. Further research is needed to explore the complex interplay between elements, i.e., how do different combinations impact effectiveness? Finally, little is known about the transferability of our findings to Africa, Asia and South America, as industrialised countries dominate the research. We hope our findings will contribute to improved understanding, and support the practice of creating effective flood warnings.

We describe the co-design process to create a co-adapted, integrated and sustainable FANFAR flood forecast and alert system in West Africa. It is based on a structured Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework that guides the participants of four co-design workshops and the FANFAR consortium through problem structuring phases, including stakeholder analysis, agreeing on objectives and options (FANFAR system configurations), eliciting expert predictions and stakeholder preferences and assessing the performance of system options based on these input data. We also introduce interactions with participants in and between the co-design workshops (e.g. rainy season surveys) concerning their experiences with floods in West Africa and with using the FANFAR flood forecast and alert system. This includes feedback on the FANFAR technical system components from hands-on practical sessions in the FANFAR co-design workshops. In this report, we focus strongly on the methods, and also present preliminary results. [...]

The FANFAR project (reinForced cooperAtion to provide operatioNal Flood forecasting and Alerts in West AfRica), funded by the European Commission (2018-2020), aims to foster reinforced cooperation between key West African and European organisations. The project focuses on developing a system according to West African user needs and priorities, identified through a set of workshops. The third workshop was hosted by the Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) and took place at Hotel De Bently (2020.02.10-14), in Abuja, Nigeria. In total, the workshop hosted 58 participants, including the consortium partners. Additionally, two representatives from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), who are FANFAR advisory board members, were present the entire week. At the opening session, the director general of NIHSA, the director general of AGRHYMET, the head of economic cooperation & energy at the EU delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS, and the Swedish Ambassador to Nigeria were also present. The workshop even made it to the national Nigerian TV and newspapers (AIT news, Nigerian Pilot, Sundiata Post). The representatives from hydrological agencies and emergency management agencies on the regional and national level from 16 countries in West Africa contributed substantially to achieve the project goals. [...]

The FANFAR project (reinForced cooperAtion to provide operatioNal Flood forecasting and Alerts in West AfRica), funded by the European Commission (2018-2020), aims to foster rein-forced cooperation between key West African and European organisations. The project focuses on developing a system according to West African user needs and priorities, identified through a set of workshops. The second workshop was hosted by the Hydrological Services Department of Ghana and took place at the Ange Hill Hotel (2019.04.09-12), in Accra, Ghana. Representatives from hydrological agencies and emergency management agencies on the regional and national level from 17 countries in West Africa contributed substantially to achieve the project goals. In this workshop, the main objectives regarding work package 2 were to further co-design the flood forecasting and alert system in West Africa by: 1) consolidating user objectives and preferences; 2) assessing the progress done on the FANFAR prototype systems since workshop 1; and 3) preparing the participants to test the system in 2019. Therefore, several activities were per-formed. To consolidate which objectives are important for the participants for developing a flood forecasting and alert system and how important those objectives are, several exercises were per-formed that allowed us to better understand the preferences. Regarding objectives, special im-portance was given to: high accuracy of information; clear flood risk information; reliable access to information; and timely production, distribution and access to information. The activities performed to understand the matching between expectations and the current develop-ment status of the FANFAR prototype systems for the flood forecast production; the (Hydrology-TEP), interactive visualization portal, integrated support systems, and flood risk communication features, allowed to focus on identifying possible improvements. The results obtained are promis-ing and we look forward to continuing the co-design process and improve the systems in the next workshops.

The FANFAR project (reinForced cooperAtion to provide operatioNal Flood forecasting and Alerts in West AfRica), funded by the European Commission (2018-2020), aims to foster reinforced co-operation between key West African and European organisations. The project focuses on devel-oping a system according to West African user needs and priorities, identified through a set of workshops. The first workshop took place at the AGRHYMET Regional Center (2018.09.17–20), in Niamey, Niger. Representatives from hydrological agencies and emergency management agen-cies on the regional and national level from 17 countries in West Africa contributed substantially to achieve the project goals. In this workshop, the main objective was to co-design the flood forecast-ing and alert system in West Africa by: 1) clarifying user objectives, needs, and preferences, 2) receiving feedback on the currently available FANFAR forecast and alert system prototypes, and 3) on acknowledging which stakeholders should be involved. Therefore, several activities were performed. To identify which objectives are important for the participants for developing a flood forecasting and alert system; several exercises were performed and allowed us to prioritize the following objectives by order of preference: High accuracy of data and information outputs, Timely dissemination of flood alerts, High Reliability, Clear definition of alert thresholds, and Reliable ac-cess to data & information outputs. The activities performed to understand the matching between expectations and the current development status of the FANFAR prototype systems for the flood forecast production (Hydrology-TEP) and visualization portal, allowed to focus on identifying pos-sible system options (how the system should be configured to meet the objectives) through key questions or drivers: 1) the easiest-to-use system, 2) the most attractive system for West-Africa, and 3) the most robust system; i.e. that works in all West Africa. To conclude, an exercise was developed to identify key stakeholders to be involved in the continued development process of the system. A social science framework was used to identify stakeholders that would desire to continue their involvement in co-design activities and those that may be interested in participating in future co-design activities. The results obtained are very promising and allow us to look forward to con-tinuing the co-design process and improve the FANFAR system in the next workshops.