Department Environmental Social Sciences

We are often under the illusion that we can predict the future with certainty, just as we can predict the moves on a chessboard. However, real-life decision-making is far more complex than a chessboard, with numerous unpredictable variables. Despite using statistical models and expert estimations, absolute certainty in predictions remains elusive. This leaves a significant element of uncertainty in every decision we make.

Experts sometimes withhold information about uncertainties to prevent misunderstandings, mistrust, or perceptions of incompetence. However, omitting this information can lead to inaccurate decision-making, resulting in disappointment and loss of trust. Furthermore, not acknowledging uncertainty can come across as patronizing. Research also indicates that people do consider uncertainty when making decisions.

Acknowledging and explaining uncertainty helps to improve communication and gives decision-makers and stakeholders a clearer picture of the limits and variability of their decision choices. It is important for experts to communicate these uncertainties to those involved in any environmental decision, which are often lay people or the public. But it is also important for the decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public to understand this uncertainty information.

This dissertation explores how to communicate uncertainty in a way that is clear and trustworthy. It aims to develop strategies for communicating uncertainties in ways that empower people to make informed decisions.

It looks at two main areas:

1. Effective Communication Formats: Finding ways to present uncertainty information that people understand and trust, and find out how they perceive this information.
2. Impact on Decision-Making: Examining how uncertainty communication affects decision-making within the framework of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which is a method used to evaluate and support complex decisions.

These research areas are studied through surveys and real-world case studies. The findings will be relevant to many fields, as uncertainty affects all aspects of life. There is a growing interest, both in the academic literature and in practical areas such as policy and governance, in understanding how to communicate uncertainties transparently and reliably.